Afghanistan: the Financial Republic Will Bring the Victory
One of the basic current problems of the USA Government is the choice of the Afghanistan campaign strategy. Political scientist E. Gershman has suggested the alternative variant of this strategy. We are presenting his concept.
Correspondent: In 2003, during the U.S. Army victorious offensive to Baghdad, you criticized the Iraq campaign political strategy in the article Quicksand of Iraq. The time has completely corroborated your criticism and forecast.
E. Gershman: I wrote that the extirpation of Saddam is a good matter. However, the plan to democratize Iraq will lead to the U.S. Army defeat. Democracy can not function in a less-developed, non-industrial country. At the best, a camouflaged authoritarian regime will be there. Most likely, a democracy will pass to a civil war and a subsequent dictatorship there. The U.S. Government already is withdrawing its troops from Iraq.
- Simultaneously, the Government increases the expeditionary force in Afghanistan.
- Its objective in this country is the same -- the establishment of a democratic regime. However, Afghani industry is still several times less than Iraqi one. The population is poor, wild and embittered by long wars. And the mountainous terrain favors to a guerrilla warfare.
- How did the war heated in Afghanistan?
- Until 1973, Afghanistan was a peaceful kingdom. Each local lord owned his mountain valley, allocated land plots and irrigation water to peasants, and thanked the Allah for his happy lot.
In 1973, the coup took place in Afghanistan. The monarchy was abolished. President Daud tried to reform and modernize the country, but he failed.
In April 1978, the left People's Democratic Party made next coup and seized the power. The Soviet Politburo could not resist the temptation to establish socialism in one more backward country and brought the troops there in 1979. Afghani communists bereaved the lords of the power and property and drove peasants to collective farms.
The lords got angry. With an assistance of mullahs, which agitated the population, they began to create guerrilla groups.
The USA and Pakistan promoted strengthening of the new Islamic army.
In the long wars, the lords and mullahs have won back their power and property and became violent and skilled warriors.
- After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Taliban refused to destroy Al-Quaeda bases and to extradite Osama bin Laden.
- In answer to this, the Western coalition has performed the military operation "Enduring Freedom" and destroyed the Taliban regime in early 2002.
The U.S. Army has set up the puppet government of Hamid Karzai in Kabul, and keeps its imaginary power by the bayonets.
The NATO political community implants an artificial democracy in Afghanistan. It has composed the befitting Constitution and simulates elections.
- Why does the democracy not work in the Afghani society ?
- In developed societies, the carriers and the force of a democracy are the bourgeoisie and the middle class. In Afghanistan, they are too small and cannot support it appreciably.
Most of the population - poor and illiterate peasants do not know and do not want to know what is a democracy, and what its good can be. But they see clearly that the strangers-infidels break their natural way of life established by the Allah, and cause direct damage to them.
According to the Western democracy principles, the invaders institute the equality of women. This prevents the exploitation of them in their households and reduces the status of Afghani men, which become furious because of their indignity.
Therefore, lords and mullahs effectively agitate peasants for the war against infidels and recruit them to guerrilla groups.
- So, Afghans cannot live at democracy?
- The present generation can not. Only, when an industrial economy will be developed in Afghanistan, when the wealthy bourgeoisie and the middle class - the natural political basis of a democracy will be formed, then new generations will create the democratic society.
The history of last 100 years of Afghanistan obviously shows: when its society was a feudal monarchy (in compliance with its backward economy), it was quiet and peace.
When internal and external well-wishers tried to improve this society without a required economic base, wars inflamed, and dictatorships were established.
This objective law is universal and inherent not only to Afghanistan, but to all countries. The world history of last 100 years shows that "the road to the Hell is paved by good intentions..."
The Western policy in backward countries reminds me of the episode of my childhood. I was 4 years old. I found an ant hole, and I pitied the poor ants. There were many of them, and they lived in a "one-room" hole. I took a long thick nail and picked a dozen separate "rooms" in the hole.
After this, the ants disappeared from the hole.
Because of the best intentions, the U.S.A. Government and NATO come to other countries and, like little children, not understanding elementary things, pick there with their bayonets and tanks and reorganize the life there according to their misconceptions and myths.
- Afghanistan was a peace kingdom. Why not to reinstate the monarchy there?
- Well, first, the Western politicians devoutly believe that only a democracy does any country peace and safe, independently of a level of its development. And secondly, monarchies were created within centuries. The restoration of the Afghani kingdom will demand, at the best, some decades. Therefore, this way is not suitable too.
- The American politicians are painfully pondering and debating: how many additional troops to send to Afghanistan, what objectives to set for them, against whom to fight, by what ways and means to govern the big wild country.
- Contrary to the elections and other "successes" of the democratization, the Afghani resistance increases. The Afghanistan government actually operates only in Kabul.
Already one thousand American soldiers were lost in this war.
Like any army that beats off guerrillas in a far country for years, the U.S. Army in Afghanistan is gradually demoralized. As it was in Vietnam. Increasingly, the American soldiers inject a pure Afghani heroin they can buy freely for one dollar per a dose next to their bases.
- What Afghani political forces do fight against the Western coalition?
- The Afghani opposition consists of two basic forces -- the lords and talibs. Their common aim is the victory over the Western interventionists. However, they have also different, opposite interests.
The basic interest of the lords is the keeping their feudal power and property. The Western democratization reduces their power. Therefore, they struggle against the invaders.
Talibs are Islamic Bolsheviks. Their purpose is to establish the Islam domination worldwide. As any fanatics, they operate with the principles - "Who is not with us, is against us. And if enemies do not surrender, we annihilate them." The Western world does not wish to be Islamized. Therefore, Islamites have sentenced it to the destruction.
After its victory, the Taliban will take away the power and the part of property from the lords, and will kill those lords who do not obey.
- Our President has declared the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2011. What will occur after that?
- Every day of the war enhances the prestige of Talibs as defenders of Afghanistan from invaders. After the Western coalition withdrawal, the Taliban will have fame of the heroic Winner over the "Big Shaitan" -- the USA.
It will win all elections, legitimately seize the power, and will create the totalitarian regime similar to Iran.
Thus, because of the erroneous political strategy, the USA Army and its allies create conditions for transformation of Afghanistan to the world Islamic terrorism base. However, this is not the most terrible.
The Afghani talibs support the Pakistan talibs. In Pakistan, the Islamic party already dominates. Many officers of the Pakistan army and intelligence services assist talibs. And Pakistan has nuclear bombs. That is, the Islamic fanatics already are three steps to control panels of nuclear rockets.
As soon as talibs will win in Afghanistan, they will grab Pakistan and its rockets. And everyone knows where they will direct the rockets.
- What is the base of your concept of the alternative strategy in Afghanistan?
- The base is the objective and obvious properties of the Afghani society. The lords are engaged in the internal affairs. They do not threaten the West. Their resistance is only natural response to the hostile democratization. If the Western coalition stops it, most lords will cease to fight against the USA Army and its allies. Then they will start to struggle with talibs.
The Taliban is quite another matter. It is aggressive and dangerous to the West through its fanatical nature. Objectively, it is interested in the democratisation, which will allow it to seize the power easily and legitimately.
The lords' and talibs' political aims and economic interests are opposite. The lords and talibs are potential deadly enemies. The Western coalition should use the conflict of their interests, promote antagonism between them, and support the lords' forces in the war against talibs.
- How can the Western coalition win the lords over in the war on Islamites?
- First of all, the West should cease the forcible democratization, which causes hatred of a majority of the Afghani population, and which will bring the power to the Taliban. Then the lords' and the population enmity against the Western coalition will disappear. Most guerrillas will lay down arms. Then, the Western coalition should establish the state system of that sort, at which the lords' community will wield the power. This community will create the efficient governmental army, which will extirpate forces of Islamites.
- The democracy in Afghanistan is dangerous to the world. Restoring the monarchy is too long. What basis of Afghani state can be?
- A financial republic. The state of this type will reinforce the lords' community and will establish its regime of the power.
- What principles of a financial republic functioning are ?
- In a state of this sort, the supreme power body is the Committee consisting of leaders of political parties.
The parties contribute money to the state budget. At a voting in the Committee, each its member has a vote weight equal to his/her party payment to the budget.
Similar Committees govern provinces and cities.
- How will the financial republic of Afghanistan function?
- The lords will contribute the money to the parties' funds, the parties will contribute the money to the state budget. The lords' community will get the power by this peaceful way.
A financial republic is a strong and effective state. The lords will trade with the Western companies. They will need the Western investments. Therefore, as 40 years ago, Afghanistan will become a peace country loyal to the West. Its government will struggle against manufacturers of heroin.
Following the example of Afghanistan, rather probably, Pakistan will become a financial republic too.
The new Pakistan regime will put an end to the Islamic party power, exterminate the talibs, and prevent the seizure of the nuclear weapon by fanatics.
- How to establish the financial republic in Afghanistan ?
- The establishment of the financial republic should be very gradual and bottom-up.
At first, the Committees of several the most peaceful provinces can be established.
At the next stage, it is possible to set up the Committee of Kabul.
Then, the Committees in most Afghani provinces and towns will be founded up.
After that, it will be possible to establish the Republic Committee.
- What does hamper to this ?
- The Western cult of the social democracy impedes the pacification of Afghanistan. The Western politicians blindly believe that the social democracy is the only kind of republic, which can be the political basis of this state. They devoutly believe that any other kind from the multitude of republic kinds cannot be such basis. Therefore, the financial republic in Afghanistan is possible, but only if the politicians will be guided not by social democratic myths, but knowledge of the Afghanistan society objective properties.
Arnold Malievsky
New Russian Word