Eugene A. Gershman


Davidzon newspaper (New York) May 16, 2007

Iraq: The Way To Win The War

Hussein's regime destroyed Islamite factions, which encroached on its authority. It suppressed revolts and internecine wars for possession of the oil. Murder of hundreds thousand people has prevented destruction of millions ones -- inevitable victims of prevented civil wars. Because of its stabilizing function, President G. Bush-senior kept it during the Kuwaiti War of 1991 year.
But Hussein was too rude and impudent to the West. His rhetoric provoked leaders of other wild countries to conflicts with the West. He supported antiwestern subversive factions in pro-Western countries. All this has justified destruction of Hussein.
Besides, the destruction should daunt leaders of other aggressive countries - Iranian Ayatollahs, Qaddafi, Asad, Kim Chen Ir, Chaves, etc.

What regime can be established in Iraq now ?

Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Nigeria, Bahrain, Venezuela, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan. In all these countries, oil and gas are the basis of the economy.
Authoritative regimes are in all them.
Democratic countries with oil-gas economies do not exist in the world.
Is this the circuit of fortuities or the objective law?

One of conclusions of the theory of social systems reads :
If natural resources form the national economy basis, the democracy is rather unlikely in such country, and an authoritative regime is optimum there.
That is, if huge riches are on or under the ground, the desire of political groups to grab the riches is much more intense than the desire to support the peace and legality in the country.
Because of too intense temptations, they never keep treaties on divisions of the resources. Therefore, they fight until the most powerful faction wins and establishes the authority.
The sooner such authority is established, the better this is for the country population. Because people suffer from internecine wars much more than from the authoritative power.

In medieval Europe, economies were agrarian. Grounds, which are natural resources, were the economies basis and the biggest values of societies. Therefore, the European states were authoritative monarchies.
Oil is a natural resource, and it is a basis of economies of the listed above countries, including, Iraq.
Agricultural grounds and irrigation water are the economy basis of Afghanistan.
Therefore, authoritative regimes are optimum and, consequently, most probable in these countries.

Why do military leaders not establish dictatorships in industrial advanced countries?
The habitual answer is because they are good guys and honour the Constitution.
The real reason is because an industrial economy is in billions times more complex than a natural resources economy.
A dictatorship is not able to control so complex system effectively.
The state control destroys the industrial economy. The socialism experience has proved this fact absolutely.
If a junta establishes the dictatorship, the society will become poor over some years, the army will be indigent and refuse to support the regime.
Military leaders understand their inability to cope with an industrial economy. Therefore, they do not grab authority in developed countries.
On the other hand, the function of distribution of natural resources is simple enough. A dictatorship can execute it quite. Therefore, too many fighters for authority are always in countries with natural resources economies.
Therefore, such countries can be only in three possible states: a war, a dictatorship or a foreign occupation.

The paradox is that abundant natural resources have become misfortune for undeveloped nations.
The conditions of many of them became considerably worse for last 30 years. Demolition of the colonial system has caused devastating conflicts.
Unnatural implantation of artificial democracy in poor countries is harmful and hopeless as well as communism, and causes chaos, civil wars, and fanatic dictatorships.

The optimum way of development of poor countries is gradual accumulation of private capitals and creation of industry at stable pro-Western dictatorships.
When the total volume of capitals exceeds cost of natural resources of the country, the civil parties establish the republican system.

In the wars for democracy, the USA fights against the social systems objective nature, but not against bad Iraqians and Afghans.

The Western coalition should establish controllable dictatorships in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The war could be finished 4 years ago with triumphal victory, enhancement of international safety, and cheap oil.
But instead of this, the messianic democratization is realized.

The failure of the democratizing missions is the main reproach of Americans to the USA Republican Government. If its politics does not change, the President and the Congress-2008 will be Democratic.
First of all, new Government will withdraw the Army from Iraq and Afghanistan.
At support of Iran, Iraqi Shiite Ayatollahs will establish their totalitarian regime.
Uprise of the brotherly ally, which has won and driven "the Big Shaitan"-USA out, will strengthen fanaticism in Iran.
Both regimes will join the efforts and resources against the West.
They will increase and accelerate creation of nuclear rockets.

Taliban will win in Afghanistan. It will join with Pakistani Islamite factions. They will intensify attacks Pakistan regime.
Many Pakistani officers support Islamites. General Musharraf's regime will not withstand against joined Afghani-Pakistani Taliban. Mullahs will established their power in Pakistan too.
Pakistani nuclear rockets will be aimed at Israel and American bases at once.

Both the Iran-Iraq Union and the Afghani-Pakistani Taliban will be strong and stable totalitarian regimes. They will be bases of global terrorism under protection of nuclear rockets.
Islamites will become more active with the regimes support world over.
The Hizbollah will strengthen in Lebanon.
HAMAS in Palestine and BAAS in Syria will strengthen too.
Islamites will seize power and establish totalitarian regimes in Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Algeria, Malaysia, and also in some countries of Africa.

How to prevent realization of this scenario?
The Iraq and Afghanistan problems are artificial and created because of missionary utopias of the USA Administration.
Therefore, the Administration should recognize falsity of democratization of the natural resources countries, and also necessity to establish controllable dictatorships in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Politically correct American troops prevent battles between jihadists' factions. Then the jihadists shoot and blow up Americans.
Why to protect them at the cost of American lives? For false humanity?
The USA troops have to let them to fight each other. This will weaken forces of Islamite factions and allow the USA Army to establish pro-Western dictatorships soon with minimal losses and expenses.
The dictatorships will rescue Iraqi and Afghani peoples from adversity of Islamite factions.

The Republican USA Administration has only a few months to make the correct decision to have time to win the Iraq and Afghanistan wars before the Elections-2008.

Eugene A. Gershman