The Sociogenesis Diagram
11. The Epoch X
11.1.1 The dominance of information technologies is predicted by the middle of the 21st century.
Since that time, the era of information technologies will begin.
The epoch of technologies of operation with information carriers will be its first phase.
A computer operates information carriers according to the program which is recorded in its memory.
Therefore, we will name this epoch as the epoch of computer technologies.
In computer technologies, control function is divided into two functions which are carried out at different times.
The first function is the creation of the control program which is recorded to a computer memory, by an employee.
The second function is the direct control of production process which computer performs according to the recorded program.
Thus, in the time of the transition to the era of information technologies, the function of production of control information that an employee performs, is separated from the function of control of production process that a computer performs .
Most repetitive manufacturing operations and processes will be automated and robotized. Few people will work directly in the production.
The most of workers will work in intellectual activity — programming, design, construction, management, medicine, education, etc.
The essence of the activities, as a rule, is to create new models of some objects, systems, processes, etc., for example, programs, technologies, designs, constructions, plans, etc.
In most cases , a new model is created each time. It differs from similar models. Therefore, the original work is performed each time.
According to (2.9.4),
the stimulation of such activities is ineffective.
The computer technology allows effective creating and exploring models of complex systems in the form of "semantic networks" in which each node contains an elementary statement, and is linked to other statements by cause-and-effect links.
The computer technology allows effective conducting of scientific discussions in the form of "semantic networks" and effective integration of intelligent power of multitude of experts.
Predominance of intellectual workers in a society and widespread application of the technology of semantic networks will cause the presence of the scientific consciousness of the majority of the members of society.
Thus, the transition to the era of computer technologies will cause the transition from the Era of routine consciousness to the Era of scientific consciousness.
In the future, effectiveness of international cooperation will be higher than effectiveness of the policy of national isolation. Political parties will cease to use languages as the factor of identification and agitation of national groups of population. Therefore, politicians will cease to hinder development of international languages.
Initially, artificial languages will be created to communicate with computers.
Natural languages cannot provide the scientific thinking and communicating effectively.
Therefore, developed artificial languages will be used to communicate in the intellectual activity.
Gradually, the best artificial language will be used in the international communication, and then replace natural languages in the routine communication.
In process of the intellectual activity, in most cases, certain psychophysiological mechanisms — the situational-emotiogenic attitudes participate in the goal-oriented directing of a person.
The attitudes generate the emotion of frustration in mind of a person when he suffers or imagines a situation of a failure, and the emotion of joy when he experiences or imagines a situation of achievement of the defined goal.
The frustration is painful. The joy is pleasant. A person seeks to reduce frustration and maximize joy.
Therefore, a person acts to stop a situation of failing of the goal and to stop frustration, and to create a situation of achievement of the goal in which his joy will be maximum.
The situational-emotiogenic attitudes is the main directing factor of the creative activity.
The more intense directing emotions, the more intensely a person acts.
Directing mechanisms that act simultaneously in psyche, inhibit each other.
The emotions that are caused by unmet needs, worries about family, life, etc., reduce intensity of the emotions that direct a person to achieve professional goals.
Therefore, the head who wants to maximize intensity of work of intellectual workers, has to pay them higher incomes, and to provide satisfaction of their needs and comfortable conditions of their activities.
Creation of the novelty is risky. The defined goal can be not achieved. Most initiated innovative projects are not completed with the profit or other public recognition.
Fear of losing a source of income because of the failures reduces intensity of the directing emotions. This reduces the efficiency of the intellectual activity.
To prevent this fear, a society will provide satisfaction of physiological and partly social needs of all members of society.
Thus, the human right on satisfaction of the physiological needs will be established.
The intellectual activity requires a high qualification.
Since most people will work in this activity, a society will provide education to all its members.
Thus, the human right to education will be established.
In the era of information technologies, information products of intellectual activity will be the most part of the riches of a society.
They have great customer value because, unlike material things, they can be cheaply reproduced and sold to many customers.
In the material production, the depreciation of the capital goods and the value of the natural resources make most of the costs.
In contrast, in the intellectual-information production, the workers' wage makes the most part of the costs, and the costs of the means of production are relatively small.
This fact will allow cooperatives of workers to organize productions of intellectual products using their own money.
Therefore, these products and profit will belong to the workers and their cooperatives, as a rule, national and international.
Thus, in the era of information technologies, the main riches of a society will not be the private property.
Therefore, in this era, as a rule, the exploitation of people by other people will not exist.
The necessary condition of efficiency of the material production is the stimulation of workers.
The stimulation is only possible when the interests of business owners and their workers are opposite.
In the intellectual production, the stimulation is not the condition of effectiveness. Therefore, the ownership of enterprises by the workers will not decrease but increase their effectiveness.
According to (11.3.5)
and (11.7.5), the main directing factor of the creative activity, in most cases, is no financial interest but the situational-emotiogenic attitudes.
Therefore, workers and cooperatives, as a rule, will not conceal their results, methods, know-how, etc. from their colleagues and will not establish their copyrights to the exclusive use of their products.
This will increase degree of cooperation between workers and between cooperatives.
Increase of degree of the cooperation significantly increases efficiency of the intellectual activity.
In conditions of the intellectual activity of the majority of members of a society, the protection of big quantity of copyrights will be very problematic.
The overwhelming majority of intellectual workers will be members of the national (or international) associations.
Therefore, a society will not provide the authors' rights to the exclusive use of their intellectual products.
Functioning of the national information system and computerization of the majority of processes of the material production will provide high efficiency of the centralised planned part of the economy.
Its efficiency will be several times more than efficiency of the market economy.
Therefore, the most part of factories, agrarian farms, transport, communication, power etc. will belong to the national (or international) association of workers.
Small number of companies will be in private ownership.
According to (11.13.1), the market competition will cease be the factor which strengthens the productive motivation.
Parallel creation of similar information products by several co-operatives is several times less productively than creation of various products by them.
Therefore, the co-operatives will co-ordinate their activity by means of the national and international planning.
The national and international associations of intellectual workers will be the main customers of intellectual products.
During the epoch of computer technologies, the main part of the riches of a society will belong to the national (or international) association of workers.
In the conditions of prevalence of the public property, the creative activity of the majority of workers and their high standard of living, the consumer purposes of the overwhelming majority of members of a society will be minimum.
Minimization of the consumer purposes and maximisation of the creative purposes of the majority of members of a society will indicate the transition from the Era of the consumption to the Era of the Creativity.
The big incomes of workers, small volume of the private sector of the economy, absence of the right of authors on exclusive use of their products will cause equal property status of the overwhelming majority of the workers.
Information networks, social equality and sufficient intellectuality of citizens will cease the necessity of political parties and the power representative bodies activity and will provide the direct participation of citizens-workers in the making of political decisions.
Such political system can be named as technocracy.
The national associations of workers of different countries will co-ordinate activity of their economies and will create the international economic systems.
The countries will form federations.
The autonomy of regions and local governments will be expanded.
The national association of workers will have the political power and will have own economy which will provide the income to the national budget. Therefore, the regional and local authorities will have the right to appropriate payments for the natural resources.
So long as the regions will lose their value as sources of payments to the national budget, enforced retention of the regions as parts of the country will not give benefits.
Therefore, the regions will have the right to secede from the country.
However realization of this right will be unlikely and rather rare as secession of a region from the country, as a rule, reduces efficiency of its economy and other social systems.
The well-being and intellectuality of the population will cause absence of religiousness in a society.
The Sociogenesis Diagram
12. The Epoch Y
12.1.1 At observation of a material object, transmission of the information about its physical properties — structure, form, colour etc. occurs. This information we will name physical.
The natural form of the physical information is analogue signals.
Computers discretize, measure and code analogue signals. As a result of this, the physical information is transformed from the analogue form into the digital one.
Objects and classes of similar objects are named with the corresponding symbols — words, hieroglyphs etc.
Symbols are the semantic information.
The symbol which signifies object, i.e. its name, is its elementary semantic model.
Identification of the name of the observed object is recognition.
Recognition transforms the physical information to the semantic one.
In the future (it is possible, in 22nd century), the Era of biological technologies will come.
On the basis of biological neural structures, the artificial recognizer of objects will be created.
The recognizer will analyze observed and projected objects and their parts, compare their properties with the models which are recorded in its memory, and choose from them the models corresponding to the objects.
As a result of identification of models of objects, transformation of the information of one kind to the information of other kind occurs.
Recognizers will increase efficiency of the intellectual activity of people many times.
As a result of this, the quantity of experts — programmers, engineers, architects, managers, doctors etc. will considerably decrease.
Owing to acceleration of ascertainment of laws by the instrumentality of recognizers, productivity of the science will increase many times.
Therefore, the most part of workers will pursue science.
The scientific work is creation of qualitatively new models of objects of researches.
The scientific model, in principle, can be only relatively true.
Namely, it can correspond to the modelled object somewhat.
Some facts which do not correspond to the created model and, hence, deny its verity, can become known in the future.
Therefore, the reliable ascertaining of fact of creation of the true scientific model, in principle, is impossible. Namely, the reliable ascertaining of whether the work is executed, is fundamentally impossible.
According to (2.10)
on this understanding, the stimulation, in principle, is impossible.
The Conclusion. The stimulation of the scientific activity, in principle, is impossible.
Thus, during the epoch Y, the stimulation of the majority of workers will be impossible.
Owing to big productivity of collectives of experts, the cost of their products — programs, designs, projects, technologies etc. will be small.
The main riches of a society will be the scientific knowledge.
The scientific knowledge cannot be someone's property. All members of a society can use them without restrictions.
In the conditions of abundance of products, of the creative activity of the overwhelming majority of members of a society, and of impossibility of the stimulation of workers, the system of commodity-money relations will not be necessary.
A society expends too much resources on the system. Therefore, this system will not exist.
People will freely satisfy their requirements.
Thereby, the right of people to satisfaction of any normal requirement will be realised.
The equal property status will cause equal possibility of all full citizens to participate in the governance of a society.
Such political system is named as democracy.
The scientific knowledge can be used by every inhabitant of the Earth.
The scientific knowledge which was created in one society, is the property of all mankind.
As the basic riches of all societies are common, the principal cause of the separation of societies will vanish.
The mankind will be the united society.
13. The Epoch Z
13.1 The Artificial Intellect will be created on the basis of artificial biological neural structures.
The setting of purposes will be the main function of the man.
The man will be able separate the function of the setting of purposes from the function of achievement of the purposes.
The Sociogenesis Diagram